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Another round of astrology tweaks approaches. If at first you don't succeed...
These changes are not yet live, but since a total of one person showed up to ask about them at simucon, I figured I could share some info here instead. ;)
The major enhancement in this release will be the addition of two new prediction options: PREDICT STATE and PREDICT ANALYZE.
PREDICT STATE is a fairly simple tool that allows a moon mage to evaluate the current state of their prediction pools.
PREDICT ANALYZE is a more potent (and challenging) offering that allows a moon mage to examine the weavings of fate around a target for any alterations.
The difficulty of PREDICT ANALYZE scales with the level of the target, requiring roughly the minimum skills for that circle to achieve an average level of success. The more powerful one becomes, the more complex his or her fate becomes. Those who surpass their minimum skills in the areas of Astrology and Power Perception will find themself more able to delve into the weavings of fate.
PREDICT ANALYZE offers multiple levels of success, each presenting additional information types and an increase in precision. Low levels of success may only reveal a high/low reading, while higher levels of success could yield information about the skill affected and a finer range of potencies. You may even be able to detect traces of the people who influenced those weavings of fate.
The potency of the prediction will modify the difficulty somewhat, as powerful alterations of fate are more difficult to interpret. Additionally, multiple predictions can greatly increase the challenge in interpretation, the sensory input bordering on overload. Threads of fate begin to overlap and obscure, so even the most skilled analysts will encounter an upper limit on the number of predictions they can recognize at once.
Teaser samples:
G>predict state lore
You consider your recent observations and believe that you have a feeble understanding of the celestial influences over lore.
Roundtime: 4 sec.
G>predict state defense
You consider your recent observations and believe that you have a potent understanding of the celestial influences over defensive combat.
Roundtime: 7 sec.
>predict analyze
You immediately will your consciousness deep into the flows of fate.
A few images materialize before your mind's eye, and you pick out the following:
A flickering sky blue tree that shifts into a torn coin purse. It hangs in the air a moment before fading from sight.
A quivering crimson tree that shifts into a mushroom. It disperses slowly. An Elothean man stands in the background, watching.
A translucent cerulean moonblade that transforms into a clenched fist. It quickly dissipates. An Elothean man stands immediately before you. Something about him seems strangely familiar.
Roundtime: 21 sec.
The next change of interest is smaller in scale, but will hopefully prove popular. All prediction tools will now increase prediction counter. Vision predictions will continue to increase the counter as before. Please note that divination tools do not currently make any USE of the prediction counter, just increment it.
Miscellaneous other changes:
1. Animal Lore is now available as a prediction target for non-rangers. Conversely, Trading can no longer be randomly selected for non-traders.
2. Tokka deck cut offer will message if it times out.
3. Skull predictions once more message the entire room with the predictor's collapse.
So, what's next?
Well, one of my main paths toward improving prediction is providing the predictor with enough information to make predictions useful. PREDICT ANALYZE was a huge step in this direction, but also leaves us with a bit of a difficult situation. Divination tools offer far more precise messaging than PREDICT ANALYZE, but they difficult to interpret, and even when interpreted correctly, they are frequently wrong. PREDICT ANALYZE is not intended to replace interpretation of divination tools, but currently obsoletes that option.
To address this, we will likely be greatly increasing the accuracy of divination tools. They should be the most powerful way of interpreting your prediction. They may receive a "confidence" factor, similar to that of Tokka cards, or they may simply be made perfectly accurate.
This leaves a void in the quality of the divination tool, which I am not yet sure how I intend to fill. The growth aspect of divination tools is important, and one area of growth is accuracy. If accuracy becomes perfect, the tools ought to be given another way to grow.
We also need to examine areas that Astrology can play a stronger role, as right now it mainly is used in the accuracy of the reading, and even there somewhat tenuously. Even at very high levels of skills, you're still going to be flat out wrong a very high percentage of the time. There's nothing to contest AGAINST, so we end up with a scale that is useless for the majority of the skill range, and still not all that great even with astrology skills beyond those of circle 100 requirements.
Things that will likely remain true:
Potency and success will largely be derived from your prediction pool size.
There will always be a chance of failure and a chance of missing your target skill.
Things that may change:
Astrology may contribute more to skill identification and/or selection.
Astrology or other factors may modify the rate at which you fill your prediction pool.
Other than that, some things are still up in the air and suggestions are always welcome.
GM Lohkrian
"In art and dream may you proceed with abandon. In life may you proceed with balance and stealth."
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